noteProject Overview
To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, it is necessary to introduce renewable energy sources, including solar power, as much as possible with the aim of using them as primary sources of power. In Japan, where most land is not flat, one way of securing suitable areas for solar power generation is installing next-generation solar cells that can be installed in places where existing photovoltaic cells could not (walls of buildings, factory roofs that can only support small loads, etc.). Installation in such locations, therefore, requires the development of lightweight next-generation solar cells that are flexible enough to be installed on curved surfaces such as walls and which are also comparable to existing photovoltaic cells in terms of performance (conversion efficiency, long-term reliability, etc.).
Through the development of basic technologies for next-generation solar cells (perovskite solar cells) and R&D for realizing technologies for various manufacturing processes (coating processes, electrode formation, and sealing processes) for scaling up products, the aim of this project is to achieve the same electricity costs of 14 yen/kWh or less by 2030 as conventional silicon solar cells.
Project Features
Project for fundamental technology development of next-generation solar cells
For perovskite solar cells, it is necessary to determine the optimum combination of raw materials from among tens of thousands of combinations, improve conversion efficiency, and improve long-term reliability. To create a market for such solar cells, it is also necessary to develop and standardize methods for analyzing and evaluating performance and deterioration factors. R&D will therefore be carried out on the optimum material composition of perovskite solar cells, elemental technologies for conversion efficiency and reliability, and techniques for analysis/evaluation.
Project for practical realization of next-generation solar cells
To realize perovskite solar cell modules with requirements to the form of installation locations, conversion efficiency, reliability, and electricity costs, in addition to utilizing technologies realized from the “project of fundamental technology development for next-generation solar cells”, R&D will be carried out for realizing elemental technologies for manufacturing processes (coating processes, electrode formation, and sealing processes) for scaling up products.
Project for demonstration of next-generation solar cells
To realize technology for mass production with high quality, technology will be developed to achieve high throughputs and yields as a series of linked production processes for each manufacturing process established in the project for practical realization of next-generation solar cells. In order to verify performance, including installation and construction methods that utilize the lightweight and flexible perovskite solar cells, field demonstrations will be conducted and improvements of solar cells will be made with the verification results.
Project Summary
Budget
Up to 49.8 billion yen
CO2 Reduction Effect (Japan)
- In 2030
- Approximately 0.6 million tons/year
- In 2050
- Approximately 100 million tons/year
Economic Effect (World)
- In 2030
- Approximately 12.5 billion yen
- In 2050
- Approximately 1,250 billion yen
Research and Development Target
By 2030, achieve levelized cost of electricity no higher than 14yen/kWh under a designated solar irradiance.
Assumptions regarding estimates of CO₂ reduction effect
- As of 2019, 112GW photovoltaic systems are globally installed, and the annual installation rate will be expected to be stable until 2030.
- By 2030, 3.5GW photovoltaic systems of the next generation solar cell will be cumulatively installed under the assumptions of limited adoption and 1% share in 2030.
- From 2030 to 2050, the annual installation rate of photovoltaic systems will be expected to range around 120GW.
- By 2050, photovoltaic systems of the next generation solar cell account for 50% share, and the cumulative installation capacity will be expected to reach up to 0.6TW.
- Concerning the above projections, Japanese companies are expected to realize a market share of 25%, equivalent to the peak share they realized after the rapid expansion of the global solar cell market from 2010.
Assumptions regarding estimates of economic effect
- Global cumulative installation capacity of photovoltaic system will be projected to reach up to 2TW by 2030 and 4.4TW by 2050.
- Based on the above projections, the global market scale will be expected to expand up to 5 trillion yen by 2030 and 10 trillion yen by 2050.
- Photovoltaic systems of the next generation solar cell will be expected to account for 1% of global annual installation capacity by 2030 and 50% by 2050.
- Concerning the above projections, Japanese companies are expected to realize a market share of 25%, equivalent to the peak share they realized after the rapid expansion of the global solar cell market from 2010.
Project Implementing Entities
| Theme | Entity |
|---|---|
| Development of manufacturing technology for ultra-lightweight R2R solar cells |
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| Technology development for practical application of film-type perovskite solar cells |
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| Social implementation of perovskite solar cells with high installation flexibility |
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| Development of technology for practical application of high-efficiency and high-durability modules |
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| Development of high-performance perovskite solar cells technology |
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| Development of core fundamental technology that contributes to the practical application of next-generation perovskite solar cells |
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