Development of Negative Emissions Technologies in Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Industries

Assumptions regarding estimates of CO₂ reduction effect and economic effect

CO₂ Reduction Effect

• Development of technologies to realize and effectively utilize high-functional biochar and other materials
  In 2030: Estimates calculated on assumption that, in addition to the current level of CO₂ capture and storage (5,000 tons/year) described in the inventory survey of greenhouse gases, the utilization of biochar is expected to increase by roughly 100 times as a result of government policies expected in the future.
  In 2050: Annual estimates of biochar supply from recyclable biomass resources in rural areas have been used to estimate the domestic volume of CO₂ capture and storage of 14.32 million tons. Moreover, assuming that the scale of biochar manufacturing plant operations exported overseas is at the same scale as biochar production carried out in Japan, the volume of CO₂ capture and storage resulting from such export operations is also expected to total 14.32 million tons.
• Development of isotropic large-scale cross-sectional structural members
  In 2030: Structural members developed under this project are expected to be used in flooring measuring 50,000 square meters during the manufacturing demonstration period of up to 10 years. As a result of promoting the rejuvenation of forests through replanting efforts and thereby realizing 30,000 cubic meters of domestic timber resources (log equivalent), 25,000 tons/year of CO₂ absorption capacity is expected to be restored to forests and 8,000 tons of CO₂ are expected to be stored by flooring materials.
  In 2050: Structural members developed under this project are expected to be used in 5 million square meters of flooring in newly built high-rise buildings and exported to China and other markets at the same volume as flooring used in Japan. On this basis, it is estimated that, since these countries possess at least 30 times the area for new buildings, new demand totaling 6 million m³/year (log equivalent) would be created for Japanese lumber. In addition, 4.91 million tons of CO₂ absorption capacity would be restored to forests and 1.65 million tons of CO₂ would be stored in high-rise and other buildings.
• Development of technologies for constructing seaweed beds
  In 2030: If 67.5 hectares of seaweed beds are constructed in demonstration ocean areas, it is estimated that CO₂ fixation will total 290 tons.
  In 2050: This technology is expected to restore 5% of the seaweed beds that previously died off worldwide by 2050, with an estimated CO₂ fixation level of 11.41 million tons.

Economic Effect

• Development of technologies to realize and effectively utilize high-functional biochar and other materials
  In 2030: If pilot activities are initiated in 10 municipalities, it is estimated that the economic impact related to the cost of constructing biochar plants, transportation of biochar, and utilization of biochar on croplands will total 51 billion yen.
  In 2050: If the cultivation systems under high-functional biochar application developed under this project is disseminated throughout Japan, the economic impact resulting from the cost of constructing/maintaining production facilities and sales of microorganisms for adding biochar functionality is expected to total 844 billion yen/year. Moreover, if an equal number of manufacturing plants (approximately 40 plants/year) are exported overseas and high-functional biochar is disseminated at a level equivalent to 1% of the world’s croplands, the estimated economic impact is expected to total 684.6 billion yen/year.
• Development of isotropic large-scale cross-sectional structural members
  In 2030: The economic impact resulting from domestic sales is expected to total 1.65 billion yen/year, and the impact resulting from the expansion of reforested land, in line with increased supplies of domestic lumber, is expected to total 240 million yen.
  In 2050: The economic impact resulting from domestic sales and exports is expected to total 330 billion yen/year, and the impact resulting from the expansion of reforested land, in line with increased supplies of domestic lumber, is expected to total 47.6 billion yen.
• Development of technologies for constructing seaweed beds
  In 2030: If technologies developed under this project are used to construct pilot seaweed beds in five fishing ports, the economic impact resulting from the manufacture and sale of seaweed cultivation systems is expected to total 1.5 billion yen.
  In 2050: The economic impact resulting from the nationwide dissemination of seaweed cultivation systems, development of the production system for new types of cartridges, and the manufacture and sale of seaweed cultivation systems, is expected to total 121.3 billion yen.