Cost Reductions for Offshore Wind Power Generation

Cost Reductions for Offshore Wind Power Generation

Project Summary

Budget

Up to 119.5 billion yen

CO2 Reduction Effect (Japan)

In 2030
Approximately 3-7 million tons/year
In 2050
Approximately 90 million tons/year

Economic Effect (World)

In 2030
Approximately 1 trillion yen
In 2050
Approximately 2 trillion yen

Research and Development Targets

  1. By 2030, develop technologies where electricity generated by fixed-bottom offshore wind power realizes costs of 8-9 yen/kWh under conditions related to wind and other factors.
  2. By 2030, develop technologies which enable the commercialization of floating offshore wind power at an internationally competitive cost level under conditions related to wind and other factors.

Assumptions regarding estimates of CO₂ reduction Effect and economic Effect

  • Offshore wind power is expected to replace combustion fuels.
  • In 2030, the capacity of offshore wind power installations is expected to total 1.68 MkW-3.68 MkW, which represents the sum of 1 MkW-3 MkW, as described in the Act on Promoting the Utilization of Sea Areas for the Development of Marine Renewable Energy Power Generation Facilities, and 0.68 MkW (for harbors and general areas of the ocean) as described in the Act on Special Measures Concerning Procurement of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources by Electric Utilities, etc.
  • In 2050, the capacity of offshore wind power installations is expected to total 45 MkW, which is the amount considered necessary by Japan’s Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy to realize Japan’s goal of renewables comprising 50-60% of all energy sources.
  • Wind power facilities are expected to be utilized at a rate of 33.2%, which is the value used to determine the upper limit supply price for public bids related to fixed-bottom offshore wind power facilities.
  • Investment costs for offshore wind power projects (as estimated by IRENA) are expected to total US$6.1 billion /year in 2030 and US$10 billion /year in 2050.
  • Global capacity of offshore wind power installations (as estimated by IRENA) is expected to total 228 GW in 2030 and 1,000 GW in 2050, of which the capacity of Asian installations is expected to total 126 GW in 2030 and 613 GW in 2050.
  • Japanese companies are expected to acquire 100% of the domestic market and 25% of Asian markets, which is the same level as markets for solar and thermal power.