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Field of Green Power Promotion, etc.

Development of Next-Generation Solar Cells

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Budget and 2050 Target Outcomes

Budget: Up to80.05B¥

CO₂Reduction Effect: Approx.100Mt/yr

Economic Effect: Approx.1,250B¥

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Project Summary

Budget

Up to80.05billion yen

CO₂ Reduction Effect

In 2030: Approximately1.5million tons/year
In 2050: Approximately100million tons/year

Economic Effect

In 2030: Approximately31.1billion yen
In 2050: Approximately1,250billion yen

Research and Development Targets

By 2030, achieve a levelized cost of electricity no higher than 14 yen/kWh for single-junction type under designated.
By 2030, achieve a levelized cost of electricity no higher than 12 yen/kWh for residential applications and a conversion efficiency of 30% or higher for tandem type under designated.

Assumptions regarding estimates of CO₂ reduction effect

As of 2019, 112GW photovoltaic systems are globally installed, and the annual installation rate will be expected to be stable until 2030.
By 2030, 3.5GW photovoltaic systems of the Single-junction next generation solar cell will be cumulatively installed under the assumptions of limited adoption and 1% share in 2030.
From 2030 to 2050, the annual installation rate of photovoltaic systems will be expected to range around 120GW.
By 2050, photovoltaic systems of the next generation solar cell account for 50% share, and the cumulative installation capacity will be expected to reach up to 0.6TW.
Concerning the above projections, Japanese companies are expected to realize a market share of 25%, equivalent to the peak share they realized after the rapid expansion of the global solar cell market from 2010.

Assumptions regarding estimates of economic effect

Global cumulative installation capacity of photovoltaic system will be projected to reach up to 2TW by 2030 and 4.4TW by 2050.
Based on the above projections, the global market scale will be expected to expand up to 5 trillion yen by 2030 and 10 trillion yen by 2050.
Photovoltaic systems of the next generation solar cell will be expected to account for 1% of global annual installation capacity by 2030 and 50% by 2050.
Concerning the above projections, Japanese companies are expected to realize a market share of 25%, equivalent to the peak share they realized after the rapid expansion of the global solar cell market from 2010.